I wrote this just 3 months ago regarding Web TV here:
If the decision comes within the next year or two for me to have either the Internet or DirectTV/Dish at home, I’m not so sure I’d be disappointed to just choose an ISP (probably AT&T) and spend the money I would “save” from a DirectTV/Dish subscription and spend it on a sweet-action HD monitor. (My current plan has me paying over $700 over the 18 month contract.)
I know WebTV isn’t there yet. But considering this was breakthrough only 3 years ago, seeing its rapid progress has me excited about what the next 5 years holds. I’ve yet to branch out to vote for a third-party politician, but in the visual streaming media campaign, my ballot has already been cast.
The big advantages to TV on the Web are these:
- Cost — Basically getting ISP & TV at one cost, not two.
- Portability — watch TV wherever you have broadband connection. (This is a lifeline for college students. At least, it was for me.)
- Mover & Shaker — Web TV has shown rapid progression each year.
Basically, for the Cable and Satellite providers to win the day over Web TV, they would have to convince users that either (1) the advantages with Cable/Satellite were greater than Web
TV with an attached cost, or (2) that Web TV couldn’t deliver to expectations.
Addressing the first, history says that people don’t mind paying for TV service. A story that issued on Friday says that Time Warner has grown in subscribers every quarter since they were founded.
Addressing the second, the wired story announces intentions of Comcast and Time Warner Cable to launch a Web TV experiment called “TV Everywhere.” They are strategically hitting the main weaknesses of “free” Web TV — inconsistency in quality and availability. As Mark Cuban noted back in March on his blog, the Web TV experience is not sustainable. There are too many variables involved with the quality of the Web TV experience.
The “official license” language of the Cable companies scares the Hulu crowd. It’s a battle of ad-funded Web TV or subscription/license-funded Web TV.
How will this play out? Users are casting votes every day. History says that people will pay to have higher, sustained quality, rather than taking the cheaper option.
